NBA Injuries and Groups – 3/16/2021
This article is meant to overview the NBA main slate daily and show both the meaningful injuries of the slate as well as any optimizer groups that are recommended for the slate. If you have any questions, reach out to me in the discord or on Twitter @vernthecar.
Implied team totals are in parentheses for each team.
In general, the more games on a slate, the stricter you can be with you rules. It is much tougher for backups to be on the optimal lineup together on a 12 game slate then it is on a 3 game slate. The groups mentioned below will keep the slate dynamics in mind and will mention context where relevant.
I have put in bold how I would characterize the rule. The four categories (from most likely to implement this rule to least likely) are must, conservative, moderate, and aggressive. For example, I would be far more likely to include a conservative rule in my optimizer than I would an aggressive rule.
This is usable for all major DFS sites, but is geared more towards DraftKings.
Boston Celtics (112.25) vs Utah Jazz (116.25)
Celtics Injuries: Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson are OUT.
Jazz Injuries: Jazz are completely healthy
Celtics Groups:
Max 2-3 of Celtics core (Tatum, Kemba, Jaylen, Marcus Smart)- Not only do the Celtics have a tough matchup, but the salaries are elevated for a team that will give more minutes to Smart each day. Especially since there are great pay up options elsewhere on the slate, I would make max 3 a must, while max 2 would be conservative (if play Celtics together, try to include a Jazz player as the likeliest way to the optimal is a closely contested game leading to heavy minutes and hopefully overtime).
I originally had a rule written up about the three Celtics big men (Theis, Robert Williams, and Thompson), but now that there’s only those two, they each should split the center minutes and each should be viable. I wouldn’t rule them out.
Jazz Groups:
Max 1 of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors- Typical center overlap; no need to likely play Favors, but if you do this rule is a must.
Max 2-3 of Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale- The Jazz run steady rotations, but there are no injuries of note and none will grade out as great players in optimizers. If any do get to the optimal lineup, they will likely need a spike in minutes that comes from the other players. I’d make max 3 a must, while max 2 would be moderate (note that I didn’t include Gobert in this group because his production is far more independent than the other players above).
Miami Heat (109.25) vs Cleveland Cavaliers (98.75)
Heat Injuries: Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, and Tyler Herro are PROBABLE, while Avery Bradley is QUESTIONABLE
Cavs Injuries: Kevin Love is DOUBTFUL, while Taurean Prince remains OUT.
Heat Groups:
I’m making the assumption that all three probable players are in; Bradley’s role won’t change much either way.
Max 1-2 of Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Herro, Duncan Robinson- With Bam back in play, these Heat guards will lose production and minutes, as the Heat don’t have to play as small of a lineup. All of their salaries are priced up due to the games Bam missed. I’d say max 2 is conservative, max 1 is aggressive (it is a good matchup despite the Heat’s lower implied total).
Max 1 of other Bradley, Precious Achiuwa, Andre Iguodala, KZ Okpala, and any other Heat fringe player- Won’t be room for any of these players and likely don’t need to be in player pool, but if including them it’s a must rule.
Cavs Groups:
Max 1 of Jarrett Allen and JaVale McGee- These two are direct centers, and won’t share court-rule is a must.
Max 1 of Dean Wade, Issac Okoro, Dylan Windler, Cedi Osman- With Larry Nance Jr. and Darius Garland both back, the remainder of the rotation is very tough to get to; if the game is competitive, the Cavs will roll out Sexton, Garland, Allen, and Nance for big minutes. I’d make this rule a must
Max 2-3 Cavaliers: This team has the lowest implied total on the slate by far, with elevated salaries and a brutal matchup. I would be trying to short this team as much as I could (unless you want to include a game stack of some kind). Max 3 would be a must, while max 2 would be moderate.
Houston Rockets (108) vs Atlanta Hawks (117)
Rockets Injuries: Still a loaded report; Danuel House and Ben McLemore are QUESTIONABLE, Christian Wood is DOUBTFUL, while Eric Gordon, Rodions Kurucs, David Nwaba, P.J. Tucker, and John Wall are OUT.
Hawks Injuries: Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu are both QUESTIONABLE, while De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish remain OUT.
Rockets Groups:
I’m assuming Wood is out, but will break down the situations for House and McLemore:
IF House and McLemore are IN:
Max 2 of House, McLemore, Sterling Brown- It’s unclear how many minutes House would play after a long absence, but his minutes would impact the other wings. Now that Kevin Porter Jr and Victor Oladipo are playing together, there won’t be as much room for the wings. I’d make this rule a must
Max 1 of Justin Patton and KJ Martin (DraftKings only)- Martin is having a breakout, and is still the minimum salary on Fanduel which is absurdly too low. But on DraftKings, this rule could be useful. Patton dealt with early foul trouble, which led to Martin entering the game earlier. These two can share the floor, but they both are around 5k on DraftKings, and Martin’s ownership will still be high as people have his name on their mind. I’d mark this rule moderate, but it’s more of a way to short Martin on DraftKings.
IF House and McLemore are IN:
The Rockets would have only eight players, and I wouldn’t limit them at all. Their salaries would be too cheap for their upside.
Hawks Groups:
IF Capela is IN:
Max 1 of Capela and John Collins- Collins has far better production at the center position as opposed to alongside Capela. The Rockets are a great matchup, so they could still get there, but I’d mark this rule as moderate.
Max 2-3 of Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Tony Snell, Solomon Hill, Kevin Huerter- The Haws do have a great matchup and a high implied team total, but if Capela plays, the minutes allocation is much different for these players. Snell and Hill aren’t great FPM players, while the other three need more minutes than they would get if Capela was there. I’d say max 3 is a must, while max 2 is moderate.
IF Capela is IN:
I would remove Gallo from the group above, as he would be likely starting and be a good play. I’d then make the rule max 1-2 for the remaining players; max 2 would be a must, max 1 would be aggressive.
Philadelphia Sixers (112) vs New York Knicks (105.5)
Sixers Injuries: Joel Embiid is OUT; no other injuries.
Knicks Injuries: Mitchell Robinson, Derrick Rose, and Austin Rivers are OUT, while Elfrid Payton is DOUBTFUL.
Sixers Groups:
Max 1 of Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley- Only 2 minutes of overlap in non-garbage time, this rule would be a must.
Max 1-2 of Danny Green, Furkan Korkmaz, Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, Mike Scott- Even with No Embiid, the Knicks are a pace down team and Simmons and Tobias Harris will still run the show (along with Seth Curry who you could include in this group, but I think his ceiling makes me not want to group him with the others). I’d say max 2 is a must, while max 1 is aggressive.
Knicks Groups:
Max 1 of Taj Gibson, Nerlens Noel, Obi Toppin- All of these are centers (except Toppin who plays marginal minutes); this rule is a must.
I wouldn’t run any other rules for the Knicks. Even on a back-to-back and a tough matchup, Thibs plays his guys his minutes, so I’ll let the Knicks go as they may, and maybe try to limit the total Knicks (somewhere around 2 to 4).
Chicago Bulls (111.5) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (105.5)
Bulls Injuries: Devon Dotson is PROBABLE, while Garrett Temple remains OUT.
Thunder Injuries: Lu Dort is QUESTIONABLE, while Darius Bazley, George Hill, and Al Horford are all OUT. Svi Mykhailiuk is AVAILABLE to make his team debut.
Bulls Groups:
Max 1 of Thad Young and Wendell Carter- These two have been splitting center minutes since Lauri Markkanen came back, and even if they got some overlap their salaries are too high to make it worthwhile; rule is a must.
Max 1 of Otto Porter and Patrick Williams- These two have been direct subs for the last two games, and aren’t great plays on their own either- this rule would be a must.
Thunder Groups:
IF Dort is ruled IN:
Max 1 of Theo Maledon and Ty Jerome- With Maledon back and SGA still dominating usage, it would be difficult for these two guards to get to the optimal lineup. Also, Mykhailiuk should enter the rotation, so I’d make this rule a must.
Max 2 of Moses Brown, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Roby- With no Horford, the minutes will be there for the Thunder big men, and Brown and Poku will be two of the most popular plays on the slate. I think independently all three of these players may be good plays, but their median projections won’t take into account the floor one will hit if the other two play more minutes. This rule would be moderate for me.
IF Dort is ruled OUT:
I’d remove both rules; Dort’s absence opens up another 28-32 minutes, and with the Thunder still so shorthanded, I’d be okay with letting them fly since everyone is so cheap outside of SGA.
Portland Trail Blazers (120) vs New Orleans Pelicans (118)
Blazers Injuries: CJ McCollum has been removed from the injury report and is AVAILABLE, Harry Giles is QUESTIONABLE, while Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic remain OUT.
Pelicans Injuries: JJ Redick is OUT; all healthy otherwise.
Blazers Groups:
Max 2-3 of Robert Covington, Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., Rodney Hood- With McCollum back, the other Blazers will lose some minutes but will lose usage more than anything. McCollum will likely be on a minutes limit, but the Blazers salaries are priced as if he weren’t playing at all. Because the matchup is so juicy against the Pelicans, I’m giving more room for some players to pop (but can’t be too many together). I’d say max 3 is an easy must, but max 2 is moderate.
Otherwise, no rules needed; Lillard and Kanter are both playable, while McCollum is too expensive for his likely minutes restriction.
Pelicans Groups:
Max 1 of Steven Adams and Jaxson Hayes- These are pure centers- rule is a must.
Otherwise, all the Pelicans look to be good plays in a great matchup (the game total is the highest on the slate by 10 points). I’d try to limit the Pelicans as a whole, in the 3-4 range.
Los Angeles Lakers (115.75) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (107.25)
Lakers Injuries: Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis, Alex Caruso, and Jared Dudley are all OUT, while Lebron, Kyle Kuzma, and Markeiff Morris are all “PROBABLE” (note the quotes; these guys will play).
Wolves Injuries: Jaden McDaniels is PROBABLE, Jarrett Culver is DOUBTFUL, while Malik Beasley, Jordan McLaughlin, and D’Angelo Russell are all out.
Lakers Groups:
Max 1 of Damian Jones and Montrezl Harrell- Another center rule- a must.
Max 2-3 of Wesley Matthews, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Talen Horton-Tucker, Markieff Morris- With Davis out and a great matchup against the Wolves, some of these players will probably make value as their salaries are all cheap. However, they will need minutes to get there and they will be competing with each other. I’d make max 3 a must, but max 2 would be moderate.
Wolves Groups:
Max 1-2 of Wolves OUTSIDE of KAT, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards- These three players will lead the way for the Wolves, while everyone else on the team changes from game to game. The Lakers still have a good defense, and the fringe players production is not great. I’d say max 2 would be a must, while max 1 would be moderate.